UBS BB reduced its projections to the results of BB Segurity (BBSE3) and from BOX SECURITY (Cxse3) After incorporating data from the first quarter of 2025 (1T25) and the latest trends of the Private Insurance Superintendence (SUSEP). The bank’s analysis team revised the profits projected to both insurers by about 2% down, on average, between this year and 2029. Analysts also adjusted BB Segurity’s target price from $ 46 to $ 40, while Caixa Seguaro fell slightly from $ 18 to $ 17.50.
Revaluation is mainly associated with less favorable estimates in rural insurance, life credit and social security segments. In the case of BB Seguridade, the UBS BB team estimates that rural results can be affected by the possible reduction in subsidies to the Rural Insurance Award (PSR) subsidies, which had almost half of the budget for this frozen year.
R $ 355 million were blocked, with additional contingency of R $ 90 million, totaling R $ 445 million, representing 42% of R $ 1.06 billion approved for the year. In 2024, about 66% of the company’s agricultural awards were attended by PSR, with 27% of the subsidized value, compared to 40% in 2023. Analysts observe that the retraction of agricultural awards in 2023, with a drop of 26% year to year, contributed to this greater dependence on the allowance.
Changes in Financial Operations Tax (IOF) also generated revisions. The new rule, published in May, established a 5% charge on monthly contributions over R $ 50,000 in Life Free Benefit Life Welfare Plans (VGBL), regardless of the chosen insurer.
After the announcement, several insurers temporarily suspended or limited these applications, alleging operational difficulties and lack of visibility on the volumes brought in competitors. The National Confederation of Insurers (CNSEG) reported that contributions to VGBL plans even dropped 80%.
The government has postponed the start of the collection to June 25, and there is a proposal in the House of Representatives that can revoke the measure. Still, UBS BB estimates that revenues with brokerage of these contributions should fall in the short term, especially for BB Segurity, whose pension line represents 6% of total revenue or 12% of the broker’s revenue. In Caixa Segurity, these percentages are 2% and 4%, respectively.
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Based on the changes, analysts also recalculated the impacts of the new rules. A Provisional Measure (MP 1.303), still in process, established that there will be a transition phase until December 2025, with IOF collection on annual contributions above R $ 300 thousand per insurer. From 2026, the bank recalls, the tax will focus on contributions to over R $ 600 thousand per year, regardless of the institution. In the assessment of UBS BB, this change tends to reduce monthly contributions and mainly affect new contracts.
Another point of attention involves the new private payroll loans, the worker’s credit, launched by the government to private sector workers. The product is distributed by the channels of Banco do Brasil and Caixa Econômica Federal, with the potential to originate R $ 110 billion, according to the estimate of the UBS BB bank team.
BB Security reported that it had generated R $ 61 million in prizes linked to this modality between March 21 and April 30. Caixa Seguridade started the offer only in April and also makes operational adjustments. SUSEP data show growth of 12% year by year in BBSE credit awards, while CXSE’s remaining 51% below the same period as 2024.
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Projections
Given this picture, analysts updated sensitivity analysis considering that the program should gain traction in the second semester. New projections indicate that BBSE gains can grow between 0% and 1.5% and those of CXSE between 0% and 0.8%, annualized, according to the cross-Sell (CROSS SALE).
The simulations use premises such as insurance penetration between 10% and 70%, 3% conversion rate on the insured amount, additional credit volume between R $ 44 billion, with estimated market share of 25% for Banco do Brasil and 11% for Caixa.
In the regulatory field, the report also mentions the increase in social contribution on net income (CSLL) from 15% to 20% of capitalization companies, such as Brasilcap and Caixa Capitalization. The new tax rate begins in October 2025. The expectation is less than 1% on the consolidated profits of companies.
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For Caixa Segurity, the profit projection was maintained at R $ 4.3 billion by 2025 and R $ 4.8 billion in 2026. In the case of BB Segurity, the profit projection is R $ 8.9 billion in 2025 and R $ 9.2 billion in 2026.
