20 months ago, shortly after Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023, Israeli Premier’s career, Benjamin Netanyahu, was on the edge of the cliff. He was in power during the worst military mistake in the country’s history, shaking his security credentials and sinking support to his government.
The US attack on Iran this weekend, added to the recent Israeli offensive against the country, put Netanyahu on the way for his political redemption. For decades, he dreamed of striking the Iranian nuclear program, presented as the greatest threat to Israel’s future, and whose destruction was his greatest military priority.
Now he is closer than ever to achieve his goal. For many Israelis, the government has achieved a success capable of restoring its reputation as the country’s security guardian, raising its chances of reelection and, depending on the coming weeks, recording its historical legacy.
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“This night (Sunday dawn) marks Netanyahu’s greatest success since the first time it came to power in 1996,” said Mazal Mualem, Netanyahu biographer. “From the perspective of the population, he has obtained a victory against the one who is considered the greatest threat to Israel since its foundation.”
In Iran, the short -term consequences of US attacks have not yet emerged. It is unclear if the missiles have completely destroyed their targets. And even if they have it, Israel can continue to attack Iran, seeking to destabilize the local government.
The Iranians launched another series of missiles against Israel on Sunday, and many fear that they can retaliate against American foundations, embassies and interests. This can lead to new actions from the US and Israel, expanding the war. However, if the Iranian response is limited, the Israeli government may reduce the pace of the offensive, pleased to have obtained most of its goals, and aware that a longer conflict would be a risk to the air defense system itself.
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“The ball is in the Iranian field,” said Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli military intelligence. “If Iran continues to firing missiles, Israel will also continue to attack and seek new achievements, reaching missile missile launchers and missile factories, the oil industry and the Iranian civil leadership.”
Whatever happens in Iran, Netanyahu’s success has already changed the political scene in Israel. Following the beginning of bombing against Iranian territory, just over a week ago, opinion polls showed that their coalition has reached the highest level of support since the beginning of the war against Hamas in Gaza in late 2023.
On Sunday morning, his greatest critics applauded Premier, including having convinced US President Donald Trump to join the battle and destroy targets that Israeli planes would not.
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“I have no problem with him to enjoy the moment,” said Yair Lapid, the opposition leader, in an interview with a local radio on Sunday. “This is a success for Netanyahu, Trump and the free world. That was what needed to happen.”
Encouraged by the blow against Iran, Netanyahu can show greater flexibility in negotiations for a new truce and hostage release in Gaza, analysts say.
During most of the war, Premier avoided an agreement that would allow Hamas leadership to continue to influence the territory. The far -right members of their coalition threatened to leave the government if the war ended without the full defeat of the Palestinian group. And with the party of Netanyahu skating in the polls, he seemed unable to concessions that put his political alliance at risk, as occurred in the last round of conversations in May.
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Now, Netanyahu has options. By obtaining a military victory against Iran, Hamas’s biggest supporter, Premier will be able to persuade his coalition to agree with direct conversations with the group, according to his former counselor Nadav Shtrauchler.
“Soon we can say“ we changed the Middle East. Now we need to be more flexible on other fronts, in Gaza and the hostages, ”said Shtrauchler.“ It won’t happen tomorrow, but a window of opportunity has been opened. ”
If you agree with a ceasefire in Gaza, this will raise the chances of Netanyahu to obtain another long-standing goal: the normalization of Saudi Arabia relations, the most powerful Arab country.
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In conversations with US diplomats last year, sources say, Saudi Arabia expressed its availability for such agreement, as long as the war reaches the end in Gaza and Netanyahu agrees with Palestinian sovereignty. The first item is still a long -term plan, and the second is even less likely, given Netanyahu’s resistance to a Palestinian state. But now that it depends less on its extreme right allies, Premier can have more maneuver.
“Now it’s easier for him to advance with great diplomatic gestures, like a deal with the Saudis,” said Shtrauchler. “If he has time today, he will smoke a great cigar. Even if he has not yet come to an end, he has fulfilled one of the missions of his life, and is on the way to fulfill others.”
