The founding partner of Capital Polo, Claudio Andrade, has questions about the destination of technology giants, the so-called “7 magnificent” (Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla). For him, it is still uncertain if these companies will maintain their dominance into an environment transformed by artificial intelligence.
“In the history of technology, the leaders of an era are almost never the leaders of the following. IBM reigned in the age of mainframes, but lost room for Compaq, Dell and Microsoft in microcomputers. Then, on the internet, we saw Google, Amazon and goal appear – but it was not IBM or Dell that led this movement,” he contextualized during the program during the show during the show. Stock Pickerspresented by Lucas Colazzo.
The resistance of current giants to profound changes can be an obstacle. “It’s the Kodak effect. The fear of cannibalizing your main product prevents a bold turn. Who did it was Netflix, which ended the DVD by mail and went with everything for streaming,” he compared.
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Andrade also raises doubts about the presence of the so -called “network effects” in the new cycle. “Internet age companies have benefited from these effects, where the more users, the higher the value. But perhaps this does not happen with artificial and robotic intelligence, which are more industrial and less digitally scalable sectors,” he said.
IA, Robots and the Challenge
The Capital Polo partner sees in the emergence of artificial intelligence and robotics a fertile but still little deciphered field. “This junction of AI with drones, humanoids and autonomous vehicles can be as transformative as the smartphone. But everything that is exponential the human being has difficulty predicting,” he reflected.
Unlike the internet, AI may not generate such evident monopolies. “Right after the launch of ChatgPT, several other models have appeared. And everyone drinks from the same sources. There may be no ‘flywheel effect’ that brings overdone profits to one company,” he said.
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The industrial part also imposes barriers. “Hardware has no network effect. It is expensive, intensive capital and difficult to climb. Tesla, for example, has no network effect. Robots are physical goods. So it is possible that the value is more in the software layer than in manufacturing itself,” he said.
Andrade speculates that the industry can go similarly to that of microcomputers: one player manufactures the hardware and another leads with software. “It is possible that a new standard may arise, but it is still too early to say,” he said.
