In Brazil, at 8am, the consumer confidence index for June will be released, an indicator that measures the perception of families about the economy and can influence consumption and investment expectations. At the same time, the Central Bank will make the minutes of the last Copom meeting available last week, a document that details the discussions and projections on the Selic rate, currently at 15%, and will signal the next steps of monetary policy.
In the United States, the focus turns to the June consumer confidence rate, scheduled to be released at 11am (Brasília time), important for assessing family spending behavior and possible expectations of economic growth. Already at the end of the day, at 5:30 pm, the weekly report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil stocks, which can directly impact fuel prices and influence the confidence of global markets.
Still abroad, markets have repercussions on US President Donald Trump’s announcement about a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. “From the principle that everything will work as it should, what will happen, would like to congratulate both countries,” Trump wrote, who called the conflict “The 12-day War.”
Agenda
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has meetings scheduled on Tuesday (24) at the Planalto Palace with the Minister of the Civil House, Rui Costa (9:30), the Minister of the Secretariat of Institutional Relations, Gleisi Hoffmann (11h), the Special Secretary for Civil House Legal Affairs, Marcos Rogério de Souza (14h40), Father Antonio Maria, Fernando Haddad (3:30 pm), and the Minister of Cities, Jader Filho (4:30 pm).
At 14h, Haddad grants a press conference on exchange of debts for specialized care in the Ministry of Health.
BC President Gabriel Galipolo has a meeting with representatives of the House of Representatives, Parliamentary Front of Agriculture (FPA), and Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil (CNA) (closed to the press). Already Gilneu Francisco, director of regulation of the BC, participates at 9am in the opening of the Social, Environmental and Climate Sustainability Seminar in the Brazilian financial sector promoted by the Central Bank of Brazil in partnership with Deutsche Gesellschaft Für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (chalk), in São Paulo. (Open to the press)
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Brazil
8h – Consumer Confidence (June)
8h – Copom Minutes
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USA
11am – Consumer Confidence (June)
5:30 pm – Weekly Oil Stocks (API)
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INTERNATIONAL
Ceasefire
US President Donald Trump said a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran came into force with the purpose of ending the 12-day conflict between the two nations. Trump’s statement was followed by the confirmation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel agreed with the truce. Iran’s Foreign Minister, on the other hand. Still, hours after the statements, Israel claimed to have identified a Missile release of Iran and instructed the military to “respond energetically to the violation of the ceasefire by Iran.”
TREND INFRINGEMENT
Israel accused Iran of violating the ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump last Tuesday to end the 12-day war. Hours after Trump’s truce statement, Israel detected missile releases. His defense minister instructed the military to “respond energetically to the violation of the ceasefire for Iran with powerful attacks against the regime’s targets in the heart of Tehran.” Iran has not yet publicly confirmed that it agreed with the ceasefire.
ECONOMY
Avian flu
A new case of avian flu was confirmed on Saturday (21) in Jaboticabal, in the interior of São Paulo, in a wild bird found in the urban area, and released to the press on Monday (22). According to the Agricultural Defense Coordination (CDA), the animal, a cabocla mark, had symptoms such as stiff neck, greenish diarrhea and lack of coordination. Since Thursday (19), teams have carried out surveillance actions on site. There is no commercial creation of birds within ten kilometers. This is the second registration of the disease in the state, after the first case confirmed on the 13th.
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Adjustment
The National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS) approved a readjustment of up to 6.06% in individual and family health plans, from May 2025 to April 2026. The increase can be applied in the anniversary of contracts and, for those who won in May and June, will be charged with retroactive or August. The index is the lowest since 2021, when there was negative adjustment. The increase is not valid for collective plans, which follow without defined limit. Even above inflation, ANS says the calculation considers services use and not just prices.
Investment
BNDES will invest at least R $ 5 billion in variable income by 2025, prioritizing green economy, decarbonization and innovation. Another R $ 5 billion will be allocated via investment funds, with no defined deadline. After almost a decade focused on divestments, the bank resumes direct contributions in the capital market. The current portfolio has a strong concentration in Petrobras, JBS and Eletrobras, but includes companies such as Embraer, Tupy and Brazilians. According to Aloizio Mercadante, the focus is to support innovative companies in all sizes. BNDESPAR will also act as an anchor investor in Ipos.
POLICY
June parties
Congress should have slow pace in the coming days due to June festivities, which mobilize parliamentarians in their states, especially in the Northeast. Semi -presential sessions will allow remote votes, but without controversial guidelines. The Senate tries to vote by June 30 the bill that expands from 513 to 531 the number of deputies, otherwise the TSE assumes redistribution. After St. John, the rhythm remains reduced with the trip of parliamentarians to the Lisbon Forum. Prior to recess on July 18, votes such as IR exemption up to R $ 5,000 are planned and the IOF clash.
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CPMI DAS FRAUDES IN THE INSS
The CPMI of the INSS fraud will be controlled by the center, although it has been sponsored by the opposition. Senator Omar Aziz (PSD-AM) should take over the presidency, while the rapporteur will be named after the center, in articulation conducted by Hugo Motta (Republicans-PB), according to a CNN report. The government, which initially tried to block the commission, now seeks to control work to avoid political wear. The opposition, which articulated the creation, fears losing protagonism, as occurred at CPMI of January 8. The commission should be installed only in the second semester, after the recess.
App workers
Deputy Augusto Coutinho (Republicans-PE), rapporteur of the Special Commission on Application Workers, seeks to install the board before the parliamentary recess, which begins on July 18. He has met with technicians and the committee chairman, Joaquim Passarinho (PL-PA), to elaborate the base text of the bill. The proposal must cover all app modalities. Upon completion, deputies must request the mayor, Hugo Motta (Republicans-PB), the installation of the commission. Motta has already announced the creation of the group, highlighting the goal of creating legislation that contemplates the reality of millions of delivery and drivers. The expectation is to vote the project later this year, after the federal government’s retreat in 2024, due to criticism of the previous project.
Contactless
Reserve colonel Marcelo Câmara told the Supreme Federal Court (STF) that he had no contact with whistleblower Mauro Cid after his release in May 2024. The statement took place at a custody hearing, a day after Chamber was arrested again by order of Minister Alexandre de Moraes. The chamber lawyer released conversations with CID that took place before the precautionary measures, claiming that the prison should be annulled. House is defendant for alleged participation in the coup plot and accused of monitoring Minister Moraes. The defense asked for its release, a decision that is up to the minister.
Zambelli
The Chamber’s Constitution and Justice Commission (CCJ) has opened a deadline for Carla Zambelli (PL-SP) to submit a defense in the process that can revoke his mandate. Sentenced to 10 years in prison by the Supreme Court for invasion of the National Council of Justice (CNJ) system, Zambelli has been on the run in Italy since May. She will have up to five sessions of the Plenary to protocol defense and indicate evidence. The loss of the mandate depends on the approval of 257 deputies. Interpol included its name on the red list, but its arrest depends on agreements with Italy, where it has citizenship.
(With Reuters, Agência Brasil and Estadão)
