Paraná survey research shows that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) appears technically tied with Michelle Bolsonaro and the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), in simulations for the 2026 presidential elections.
In a scenario with Michelle as a candidate, Lula has 33.5% of voting intentions, compared to 30.2% of former first lady. In the dispute against Tarcisio, the petista appears with 34%, while the governor marks 24.3%. In both cases, the difference is within the error margin of 2.2 percentage points.
The research indicates that even with Jair Bolsonaro (PL) ineligiblethe right keeps competitive names for 2026. Michelle Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas are the only two candidates who can polarize with Lula more directly, keeping the dispute open.
Michelle’s performance reveals the strength of political capital transfer within the Bolsonarist Center, while Tarcisio, who has not yet declared himself a pre-candidate, appears consolidated as a viable name outside the former president’s family circle.
Bolsonaro still leads, but is ineligible
Although ineligible, Jair Bolsonaro leads the main scenario of the survey with 37.2%, followed by Lula with 32.8%. Both are technically tied, which reinforces that the former president is still the strongest name of the opposition.
However, if your legal condition prevents you from competing, the data suggest that there are substitutes with the potential to support the competitive conservative project in 2026.
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Other names on the right have weak performance
Other right-wing field pre-candidates, such as Eduardo Bolsonaro and Flávio Bolsonaro, have considerably inferior performance. Lula wins with clearance in both scenarios:
• Against Eduardo Bolsonaro, Lula has 33.8%, and the deputy, 21.3%;
• Against Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula also marks 33.8%, and the senator, 20.4%.
In addition, names such as Ratinho Junior (PSD), Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) and Helder Barbalho (MDB) remain below 10%, even when included in the scenarios.
The survey was conducted by Paraná research between June 18 and 22, with 2,020 in -person interviews in 26 states and the Federal District. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points and the degree of confidence is 95%.
