Markets attentive to Iran’s response, PMI in the US, Fed speeches and other highlights

The Middle East concentrates the attention of global investors on Monday (23), given the expectation for the next movements of Iran after US attacks on nuclear facilities on Saturday. The Iranian Parliament approved a proposal for the closure of the Strait of Ormuz – a strategic maritime located between Iran and Oman, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabic Sea. An eventual interruption on the region’s traffic would have a significant impact on the global oil flow, as most commodity exports pass through this route. However, the measure still needs to be approved by the Supreme National Security Council of Iran and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to come into force.

In the United States, the main economic indicators of the day will be released from 10:45 am, with the Indexes of Purchasing Managers (PMI) of industry and services for June. At 11am, data on the sale of housing used in May leaves, which provides information about the American real estate market.

Already Brazil releases at 8:25 am The Focus Bulletin, weekly Central Bank report (BC) that brings together market projections for economic indicators such as inflation, gross domestic product (GDP) and interest rates. This will be the first edition after the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) to raise the Selic rate to 15% per year, seeking to control inflation. The report will bring updates on expectations for the Brazilian economy, at a time when investors and analysts evaluate the effects of monetary tightening on public accounts and consumption.

Agenda

At 9am, President Lula will receive the minister of the Secretariat of Social Communication, Sidônio Palmeira. At 10:30 am, will have a meeting with Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira. At 2:40 pm, he will find the Special Secretary for Legal Affairs of the Civil House, Marcos Rogério de Souza, and at 16h00, will receive the Minister of Education, Camilo Santana.

In the US, members of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee and Adriana Kugler speak in Eventod throughout the day.

Brazil

8h25 – Focus

USA

10:45 am – Industry PMI (June)

10:45 am – Services PMI (June)

11am – used houses (May)

INTERNATIONAL

Estreito de Ormuz

Iran’s Parliament approved the closure of the Ormuz Strait via the sea, located between Iran and Oman, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The interruption will reach regional oil trade. To enter into force, Parliament’s decision still needs to be approved by the Iran’s Supreme Security Council and Ayatollah Khamenei.

Regime change

United States President Donald Trump indicated that he could support the overthrow of the Iranian government through a known process in geopolitics as “change of regime.” “It is not politically correct to use the term ‘regime change’, but if the current Iranian regime cannot make Iran big again, why would there be no change of regime?” He said in a publication on the Truth Social network on Sunday, 22.

American Congress

Trump’s decision to attack Iran without consulting Congress generated a strong reaction. Parliamentarians, including Republicans, questioned the legality of the offensive, citing the resolution of war powers. Critics claim that there was no imminent threat to justify the action, making it unconstitutional. Deputies like Thomas Massie and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez argue that the act is a reason for impeachment. In the Senate, Tim Kaine wants to block future actions without legislative approval. Even allies, like Steve Bannon, criticized Trump for breaking their promise to keep the US out of wars.

Acts of aggression

Iran’s envoy to the UN, Amir-Saeid Iravani, condemned the US and Israel attacks, calling them “acts of aggression” and accusing Netanyahu of dragging Americans to “unfounded” war. Iravani stated that Iran will decide “the moment and scale” of their military response. It also rejected nuclear negotiations, calling them “farce” to deceive the international community. Iran has asked the Security Council to act immediately, at risk of losing its credibility.

Retaliation

Iran promised retaliation and maintained the attacks on Israel after US attacks on its nuclear facilities over the weekend, feeding fears of a wider war in the Middle East and shaking global markets. The Islamic Republic fired another missile against Israel on Monday, while Israeli forces continued attacks on Iranian military facilities and airports.

ECONOMY

After US attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilitiesinvestors await apprehensive the opening of Brazilian markets todaywith analysts projecting greater risk aversion and appreciation of oil -related actions.

• XP’s strategist of actions, Raphael Figueredo, points out that, despite tensions, international markets should open with relative tranquility, given the uncertainties that still surround the conflict. Oil rose up to 4%, but softened up around 2%, while future American rates fell between 0.4%and 0.6%. President Donald Trump said he had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities in an action that intensifies conflict in the Middle East, a crucial region for global oil production, as Iran is OPEC’s third largest producer.
• Gustavo Cruz, chief strategist at RB Investimentos, explained that US direct presence can lead Iran to a more striking response, which should further press oil prices.
• Jorge Leon, from Rystad Energy, said that even without immediate retaliation, markets are already pricing a larger geopolitical risk award. By Friday, Brent oil and WTI accumulated high of 11% and 10%, respectively, since the beginning of the conflict.
• In Brazil, Petrobras should monitor the unfolding of the crisis before any adjustment in fuel prices. Finally, analysts recommend caution to investors, with preference for assets considered safer, such as dollar, gold and US treasury titles.

INSS

Dataprev president Rodrigo Assumpção said in an interview with Folha de S.Paulo newspaper that the INSS kept active, by its own decision, a vulnerable discount system, even after receiving a safer solution in 2024. According to him, orders came from people today investigated in the operation without discount. The old system was only deactivated shortly before the operation’s outbreak, which pushed five managers away. Assumption said Dataprev did not act as an auditor and only executed INSS demands. Failures allowed fraud based on sending lists without checking. About 170 servers could unlock benefits to enable discounts.

Preference

Datafolha survey revealed that 59% of Brazilians prefer to be autonomous, while 39% opt for formal employment. It also grew from 21% to 31% the percentage of those who prioritize earn more, even without a formal contract. The preference for their own work is greater among young people and PL voters, while older women and low -income people still value the CLT more. Experts point out that the rise in the application via application and the heated market boosts this change. The trend, according to them, is to increase the pressure by reducing labor charges.

POLICY

Fiscal sustainability

The PECs approved in the Bolsonaro government, which expanded transfers to states and municipalities, cost R $ 82 billion to the Lula government in three years, according to data presented by Fernando Haddad. The Finance Minister states that these expenses were contracted without definition of a source of financing. Despite criticizing the inherited weight, Haddad will also leave a billionaire account with the funds of tax reform, which will add $ 158.5 billion by 2030. IFI warns that the reform does not generate enough revenue to fund these funds in the medium term. The debate rekindles criticism of fiscal sustainability.

Validity

The Supreme Court should discuss the validity of Mauro Cid’s denunciation only in the trial of the coup plot’s defendants in the second half. Ministers evaluate that messages between ICD and lawyer Luiz Eduardo Kuntz do not bring enough new facts to nullify collaboration, although they can impact their benefits. Kuntz, who defends Colonel Marcelo Câmara, is accused of trying to obstruct investigations, using conversations as part of a “defensive investigation.” Cid’s situation is considered fragile in the Supreme, especially after recent episodes involving escape suspicions.

Unqualified

The case Daniel Silveira will be a reference for the discussion about a possible pardon to Jair Bolsonaro in 2026, which should be tried later this year at the Supreme Court. If convicted, eventual presidential forgiveness can generate conflict between powers, but the Supreme may use Silveira’s precedent to reject the pardon. Bolsonaro is responsible for serious crimes, with a pity that he could exceed 40 years, and his conviction would impact his political future. Pressure for pardon grows as an alternative to amnesty standing in Congress, with the support of the right in the elections. Experts assess that the subject must master the electoral debate and potentially provoke institutional crisis.

Complaint

House party leaders complained to the ministers Rui Costa and Gleisi Hoffmann about alleged federal government interference in the decisions of STF Minister Flávio Dino in a lawsuit on parliamentary amendments. The meeting took place at the House’s official residence in Brasilia on Monday (16). Parliamentarians claim that there is a “married game” between the executive and Dino, but the ministers denied any interference, according to Folha de S.Paulo report. Since 2024, Dino’s decisions have generated wear and tear among powers. Recently, the mayor, Hugo Motta, expressed dissatisfaction by order of the minister. Dino summoned a public hearing to June 27 on the subject.

Re-election

Datafolha survey indicates that 57% of Brazilians support the reelection of presidents, governors and mayors, contrary to the proposal of political reform in the Senate that provides for the end of reelection. On the other hand, 41% are against continuity in office. Regarding the expansion of terms from four to five years, 59% agree with the change, while 37% reject. The survey was made with 2,004 people, between June 10 and 11, in 136 municipalities, with a margin of error of two percentage points. Support for reelection is greater among young people, less educated and PT voters. The proposal of amendment to the Constitution (PEC 12/2022) still needs to go through two votes in the Senate and the House.

(With Reuters, Agência Brasil and Estadão)