Divided compared to the decision that would be made on Wednesday (18), by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), the financial market comes back after the outcome of the meeting that raised the interest of the economy, Selic, 0.25 percentage point.
Two conclusions proved more consensual in the first post-Copom economist analyzes. The first is that, except a big surprise in the coming weeks, the interest cycle of interest has come to an end. The second is in the tendency of the rate to follow in the current 15% for a long time, with little chance of cutting interest later this year.
The most optimistic bets on the loosening of monetary policy are today in the first quarter of 2026, or even in December, at this year’s last Copom meeting. But banks who work with this scenario, such as Citi and Bradesco, showed less conviction after reading a statement where Copom, in analysts’ view, gave harder signs or Hawkish in market jargon.
In addition to raising interest rates, something that was not expected by all, as there was a clear division in expectations, the committee warned that, to ensure the convergence of inflation to the goal, it considers to keep interest rates for a “quite” period.
Since the previous meeting, finalized on May 7, the exchange rate assessed the market inflation forecasts, but did not lead the Central Bank (BC) to change its scenario to the IPCA on the relevant horizon of monetary policy. The projection remains in inflation of 3.6% at the end of next year – still, therefore, of the central objective of 3%.
Even by signaling that the interest cycle has come to an end, if everything is more or less in the expected until the next meeting, scheduled for July 29 and 30, the collegiate was careful not to close the door completely, pondering that it can change idea if necessary. “The committee emphasizes that it will follow vigilant, that the future steps of monetary policy may be adjusted and that it will not hesitate to continue the adjustment cycle if it deems appropriate,” warns the copon in his statement.
Continues after advertising
For Western Asset chief economist Adauto Lima, the message is that the work to bring inflation to the goal will require Selic maintenance by 15%, the highest level since July 2006, for many months. “Perhaps some cut start in the second quarter or throughout the second half of 2026. Of course, if we have a re -impact of expectations it helps the work of the BC,” says Lima.
In his comment, Citi estimates that the interest cycle of interest may start only in the second quarter of next year, although the bank has not yet changed loosening by March. “Let’s wait for the minutes of the meeting and the second quarter monetary policy report [publicações do BC] Before adjusting our scenario. But we have already indicated beforehand that the probability that Copom cut interest in the first quarter of 2026, which is our current forecast, decreased, ”said the institution.
Bradesco, in turn, reaffirmed interest rates forecast in December, with Selic finishing the year by 14.5%. Bank economists, however, will reevaluate the scenario in the coming days.
