The government bonds traded in Treasury Direct opened on Tuesday (24) with a slight drop in longer rates, following the movement started after the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). The adjustment occurs in tune with the Minutes released this morningwhich reinforced the signaling that Selic will remain at 15% for a long time, consolidating the perception that the rise cycle has come to an end.
The IPCA+ 2050 treasure, for example, fell from 6.83% yesterday to 6.81% of real interest this morning. The IPCA+ 2029 went from 7.58% to 7.54%, and the mature in 2040 ranged from 6.91% to 6.92%. Among the prefixed ones, the movements were practically stable, with mild rise in the treasure prefixed with semi -annual interest 2035 (13.79% to 13.80%).
The drop in long rates is directly related to the Central Bank’s reaffirmation that the current level of the basic interest rate is the upper limit of the cycle. The attacks stressed that the Copom plan is to “keep Selic on consideration for a very prolonged period”, a repeated expression six times in the document.
For the investor, the interpretation is that, even without defined date, the BC is closer to starting a cutting cycle than new highs, which tends to reduce long -term interest rates in government bonds, which prior to future expectations of monetary policy.
“The message remains the same: inflation incompatible with the goal, discarded expectations and economic activity presenting dynamism, […] Now expect it to take effect, ”explained Luis Otávio Leal, chief economist at G5 Partners. For him, the BC trusts the lagged interest effect on activity and should keep the current level by various meetings.
The scenario reinforces the assessment that, despite the maintenance of Selic by 15%, the cut for cuts in 2026 is ajar. “We maintain our expectation that interest starts to be reduced at the 1st meeting of 2026, closing next year at 12.50% AA,” added Leal.
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Fabio Kanczuk, director of Macroeconomics at Asa Investments, also pointed out that although the minutes had a slightly milder tone (“dovish“), Should not provoke major adjustments in the market.” The committee again stated that its plan is to keep interest rates on consideration for a very prolonged period, “he said.
Check out the Treasury Direct titles rates at 9:30 am on Tuesday (24):
