The world may be on the brink of a new energy shock. Amid the military climb between Iran, Israel and the United States, the Iranian parliament approved on Sunday (22) a resolution to close the Ormuz Strait – the most strategic oil flow route on the planet. The measure still depends on the endorsement of the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but already raises concern about the reaction of markets and oil prices.
In recent days alone, the value of the barrel of raw has reached the highest level of the last five months, with the Brent negotiated close to US $ 55. Analysts warn that if the threat materializes, the barrel may exceed $ 100 by pressing productive chains on a global scale.
Vital Strait: 1.5 billion dollars a day
ORMUZ spend more than 20 million barrels of oil daily, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), representing about 27% of the worldwide sea trade and almost a quarter of global supply. The via connects the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and separates Iran from countries like Oman and United Arab Emirates.
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This volume represents about $ 1.5 billion per day in circulation, with direct impact on energy imports from countries such as Japan (80%), South Korea (84%), China (42%) and even Europe (25%).
Iran’s threat occurs in direct response to US bombings on Saturday (21), which reached three Iranian nuclear facilities. Tehran said he will only maintain freedom of navigation in Ormuz if his strategic interests are not threatened.
Despite the hard rhetoric, the oil market dropped on Monday (23), after rising the previous Friday. The oscillation reveals the uncertainty of traders, which bet that the flow will still continue, at least for now, even with the increased hostility between the powers involved.
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History of threats, but without effective blockages
This is not the first time Iran threatens to interdict Ormuz. Rhetoric has already been used in times of tension, as during the Iran-Iran war in the 1980s, but never fully materialized. Logistics difficulty and the risk of military retaliation – especially by the US, which maintain naval presence in the region – act as containment factors.
Still, experts warn that the current context is different. Direct attack on nuclear facilities and legislative approval of the blockade are signs that Iran may be willing to cross red lines.
Side Effects: Energy, Inflation and Supply Chains
If the block is confirmed, the impact would be immediate in fuel prices – gasoline and diesel to gas and electricity. The production chain would suffer similar shocks to those recorded during the pandemic and after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, raising logistics, food and inflation worldwide.
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Europe, which already sought alternatives to Russian gas, would see a new energy pressure. Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea, strongly dependent on Gulf oil, would also be severely affected.
Alternatives: Shale Oil and Opep under pressure
With the possibility of interruption in Ormuz, the expectation will grow that the US will again invest in unconventional oil production (Shale Oil), which has been stagnant in recent years due to low profitability. With prices on the rise, new shale fields can be reactivated.
Another way would be to expand production by other countries outside the Persian Gulf, such as Brazil, USA, Canada and Venezuela – although it takes time and depends on adequate infrastructure.
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What’s next
While the final decision awaits the approval of the Iranian Supreme Leader, global markets will go into maximum surveillance mode. The US government, in turn, has already started consultations with OPEC allies and the European Union to contain possible supply shocks.
Even though the threat does not materialize, the simple risk of closing Ormuz already reconfigures the global energy scenario, raising uncertainties, strengthening the dollar and pressing monetary policies in oil importing countries.
