Ibovespa closed down on Monday, with Petrobras among the largest negative pressures amid the fall of oil abroad, as the increase in the average east tension after United States attacks to Iran did not affect commodity flows in the region.
Reference index of the Brazilian stock market, Ibovespa retreated 0.41%, to 136,550.5 points, after scoring 135,835.25 points in the minimum and 137.130.13 points at the maximum of the day. The financial volume in the trading session totaled R $ 20.48 billion.
The US attacked Iran over the weekend, with President Donald Trump stating that his country “obliterated” the main nuclear facilities of that country. Tehran promised to defend herself, and said on Monday she fired missiles at an American air base at Qatar.
Trump said Iran warned the US before firing the missiles against its military base which, he said, enabled no life to be lost. “I am pleased to inform that no American has been injured, and almost no damage has been caused,” he said in a publication on the Social Truth.
Despite the military climbing, the absence of measures to interrupt oil and gas tanker traffic through Ormuz Strait, where about 20% of the global gross oil supply passed, avoided a new triggering of commodity prices in the international market.
Brent’s barrel rose earlier on Monday, but closed with a 7.18%drop, to $ 71.48, expanding the fall after the US-based attack. Earlier, Trump had also recommended “everyone” to maintain the price of low oil.
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In the view of Nomad’s chief strategist, Paula Zogbi, the change in prices signaled a market reevaluation, that Iranian retaliation to attacks over the weekend did not directly aim to directly the oil infrastructure, reducing the fear of severe and sustained disruption in global energy flow
The S&P 500, one of the references in the US stock market, closed up 0.96%, while the US Treasury’s 10-year title performance retreated at 4.3397% in the late afternoon of 4.375% last Friday.
Zogbi also drew attention to statements by Federal Reserve Vice President Michelle Bowman that the time to cut interest may be quickly approaching.
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The reaction of markets to statements has evaluated the strategist, demonstrate how monetary policy expectations can prevail about geopolitical concerns when the risk of direct economic disruption decreases.
In Brazil, the trading session also continued to reflect adjustments to the central bank’s decision to raise Selic 15% last week, as well as signaling that the rate should not change for a very prolonged period. On Tuesday, the BC releases the minutes of the meeting, which can give more details.
The BC-conducted Focus survey showed on Monday adjustment to the projection of economists to Selic at the end of 2025-from 14.75% to 15%. For 2026, the forecast – maintained by the 21st week – is that it reaches 12.50% at the end of the year.
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Highlights
– Petrobras PN retreated 2.5%, with attention to the situation in the Middle East and potential reflex in oil prices in the global market. The action rose earlier, but changed a signal, following the commodity movement abroad. In the sector, Prio On fell 0.71%, and in the radar estimate of production next year.
– Itaú Unibanco PN fell 0.22%, in a negative day for the sector, with Bradesco PN losing 0.78%, Santander Brasil Unit giving 1.19%and Banco do Brasil on retreating 1.22%. Goldman Analysts Sachs cut the target price of BB shares from $ 25 to $ 23 and reiterated neutral recommendation for the papers.
– Let’s lease on falling 4.24%, still under the effect of the highest Selic scenario in Brazil, which also placed other interest -sensitive papers on the negative tip.
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– Cosan On retreated 4.67%, a reflection of concerns about the effect of interest on his debt, among other factors, with Raízen PN, joint venture of the company with Shell, falling 4.07%. The day also included news involving Raízen fuel supply to Azul and forecast of discussion about biodiesel and anhydrous ethanol mixing.
– Marfrig on advanced 4.46% and BRF on rose 4.67%, with shareholders’ meeting to approve the merger of companies scheduled for July 14. Originally, the assemblies were scheduled for June 18, but were postponed by the Securities Commission (CVM) after requesting more information about the transaction.
– Vale On closed up 1.26%, attenuating the low pressure, with the backdrop of iron ore futures in China, where the most negotiated contract on the Dalian stock market ended daytime negotiations with an increase of 0.5%to 706 iuanes ($ 98.25) tonne.
