After the US attacked Iran on Saturday, investors expect apprehensive for opening Brazilian markets, with market analysts projecting greater risk aversion and the discharge of oil -related actions.
US President Donald Trump said “Obliterate” Iran’s main nuclear facilities in Saturday night attacksjoining an Israeli attack on a climb of conflict in the Middle East, while Tehran promised to defend herself. Iran is the third largest oil producer in the organization of oil exporting countries (OPEC).
For Gustavo Cruz, chief strategist at RB Investimentos, this scenario increases the volatility and risk to investors.
The United States is involved may require a larger response from Iran, which can further pull the oil quote.
“A leap in the price of oil is expected,” said Jorge Leon, chief of geopolitical analysis of Rystad and former OPEC employee during Sunday afternoon. “Even in the absence of immediate retaliation, markets are likely to precede a higher geopolitical risk award.”
Until last Friday, Brent had risen 11%, while WTI valued about 10% since the beginning of the conflict on June 13, with Israel aiming at Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iranian missiles reaching buildings in Tel Aviv.
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The currently stable supply conditions and the availability of surplus production capacity among other OPEC members limited oil gains. Risk awards decreased since no supply interruptions occurred, said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.
“Oil prices direction from now on will depend on the existence of supply interruptions – which would probably result in higher prices – or the cooling of conflict, resulting in a risk award,” he said.
On June 19, a high -ranking Iranian parliamentarian stated that the country could close the Strait of Ormuz As a way of retaliation against his enemies, although a second parliamentarian has stated that this would only happen if Tehran’s vital interests were at risk. About a fifth of the world’s total oil consumption goes through the narrow.
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The SEB stated that any close closure or relocation to other regional producers would “significantly increase” oil prices, but said it saw this scenario as a risk of tail, not as a base scenario, given the dependence of Gulf’s gross oil China.
AJAY PARAR, Oil Transition and Energy Transition Analysis Director ICIS, told CNBC that Iran will be unlikely to impose a Strait block for a long time. “Most Iran’s oil exports to China It is going through this narrow and it is unlikely that Trump tolerates the inevitable subsequent high price of oil for a long time – the diplomatic pressure of the two largest economies in the world would also be significant, ”he said.
Gustavo Cruz points out that if in the last 2 readings, the US CPI (CPI) has had a slowdown in fuel prices contributing to lower inflation, the next readings may have the opposite effect from this movement.
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Here in Brazil, Petrobras (Petr3;Petr4) must adopt the posture to wait to analyze how definitive the new scenario is before thinking about price transfer.
“These are the big effects,” says the strategist, noting that US defense companies tend to value themselves as well, while there are smaller effects, such as urea and ammonia, which already worries farmers. In addition, methanol and PVC redemption worries the industrial sector.
Risk aversion
For Marcos Praça, director of analysis at Zero Markets Brazil, one can expect an opening of the general markets in the red, with the price of oil being conditioned to the developments about the Strait of Ormuz.
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“You can expect a drop in risk assets, but it is still speculation for the expectation of what can happen, there are many topics that are on the table, but many terms are still confidential. What there is speculation of how Iran can act after the US attack. Thus, negative market projection, but if this will dictate the trend will depend on the reaction of Iran,” he says.
Paula Zogbi, Nomad’s chief strategist, points out that the expectation is to search for less risky assets, such as strong coins (including the dollar), gold and treasuries.
“Risk assets, such as actions, tend to suffer a short -term output flow. The market that responds faster to events outside the trading session, the cryptors, already shows this trend, with a strong bitcoin drop on Sunday. The moment requires caution and a balanced allocation, with protection assets to avoid very acute effects of the time of volatility in the portfolio,” says the strategist.
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(with international agencies)
