On Tuesday (24), Ibovespa managed to interrupt the sequence of four consecutive falls and closed 0.45%to the 137,164.61 pointsdriven by the positive performance of the banking and retail sectors.
The recovery was supported by two main factors: the reading of the Copom minutes, which confirmed the end of Selic’s discharge cycle-now maintained 15% per year-and the optimism generated by the ceasefire announced between Iran and Israel, which again overthrew oil prices and favored risk appetite in global markets. In the United States, action rates also closed up, even with the cautious tone of Fed President Jerome Powell, who has not yet signaled imminent cuts in US interest rates.
For traders operating the mini-index, the trading session was marked by technical relief and improvement in short-term feeling. The consistent appreciation of the actions of large banks – as BBAS3, Itub4 and Sanb11 – and retail companies, as Mglu3 and LREN3brought traction to the future index.
Despite the advance, the significant drop in oil still weighs on Petrobras, and new chapters of the Middle East conflict or surprises in Powell’s lines in the Senate on Wednesday (25) can bring volatility. The scenario is partially resumed but still dependent on balance between monetary policy, inflation and geopolitics.
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The contracts of Mini-Index (Winq25)with maturity in August, they ended the last session in light discharge of 0.11%to the 139,370 points.
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15 -minute chart analysis
For the 15 -minute chartthe asset rehearsed recovery during the last session, with an attempt to break resistance and the MOBILE AVERAGE OF 200 PERIESbut found strong performance of Ponta Saleswoman in this track, which again pressured the prices down.
The closure was below averages of 9 and 21 periodssuggesting weakness of the buying reaction. Attention should be in the support regions in 139.300/139.085 and resistance in 139,860/140.160which are the first important regions.
For Wednesday’s trading session, the main technical points to be monitored are the supports in 139.300/139.085 (1), 138.715/138.295 (2) and 137.790/137.110 (3), and resistances in 139,860/140.160 (1), 140.730/141.100 (2) and 142,000/142.340 (3).
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If the mini-index lose support in 139.300/139.085there may be acceleration of the seller pressure. In this scenario, the next technical targets become the 138.715/138.295where there was a recent buyer, and later, the region of 137.790/137.110which represents a deeper support zone and where the market can try to stabilize.
On the other hand, if there is a consistent buying volume input that leads to the resistance breaking in 139,860/140.160the asset can resume the rise in the last session. With this, the altist flow tends to initially seek the region of 140.730/141.100and if you keep the pace, you can extend the movement to the level of 142,000/142.340marking the continuity of the intraday recovery.
Node daily graphthe mini-index still follows a tall trend in the short term, but has been signaling possible weakening. For the second consecutive session, the asset closed below High Channel LTA and the averages of 9 and 21 periodsafter testing them as resistance.
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The market carefully follows the support in 137.390/136.800which, if lost, can intensify the seller flow towards 134.550/133.560 and 131.950/130.885.
To resume the main rise movement, it will be necessary to break the Resistance at 143.030/143.710with targets designed in 145.080/145.630 and in the tops in 148.520/149.400. THE IFR (14) is in 45.73in neutral zone.
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Winq25: 60 minutes chart
Node graphic intraday 60 minutesthe asset closed with discharge in the last session, testing an important resistance region, where the average of 200 Periods. At this point, the test of a low trend line (LTB) was observed, reinforcing the seller pressure. The movement resulted in the closing below the moving averages of 9, 21 and 200 periodsevidencing loss of buying force.
For this trading session, special attention to the support regions in 138.715/138.320 and resistance in 139.965/140.400because the breakup of any of these ranges can define the direction of the market.
The loss of support in 138.715/138.320 tends to accelerate the bass movement with projections to 137,760/137.110and, if broken, can seek 135.700/135.130. On the other hand, overcoming resistance in 139.965/140.400 can make room for advance until 141.100/142,000with longer targets in 142.950/143.370 points.
(Rodrigo Paz is a technical analyst)
Technical analysis guides:
Check out more content about technical analysis in Im trader. Daily, Infomoney publishes what to expect from dollar and index minihoods.
