Attack on Iran is ‘historical’, but will not destroy nuclear program

The decision of the US President Donald Trump, from bombard Iran at dawn on Sunday (Saturday night in Brasilia) “It is a historic milestone”, but should not destroy the country’s nuclear program or overthrow its regime, experts heard by The globe.

On the other hand, it can lead to a climb of the conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic and still cause internal wear to the Republican, as it contradicts its campaign promises not to engage in conflicts in distant territories, they say.

“We do not have the size of how effective the American attacks were, but it is certain that the US adds to the war against Iran Military Resources from which Israel does not have, such as MOP bombs, capable of penetrating deep bunkers, and naval power to block Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and close Ormuz Strait, the Gulf Connection to the Open Sea,” Maurício Santoro says, says Máuricio Santoro. Collaborator of the Center for Political Studies of the Brazilian Navy.

– If this actually happens, it will be a significant escalation in the conflict, with global impacts, because by Ormuz pass about 25% of world oil trade.

The US military performed an attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday (Saturday in Brasilia), marking Washington’s official entry into the war began by Israel nine days ago. According to Trump, the actions aimed at Natanz, Isfahã and the underground fortress of Fordow, an uranium enrichment installation considered the “heart” of the Tehran nuclear program.

In his social truth platform, the Republican argued that attack will force the Iranian regime to end the war, indicating that “there is no other army in the world that could have done it.”

But for Ronaldo Carmona, a geopolitical professor at the Higher School of War, Iran tends to retaliate the US with the means it still has, since “ending its nuclear program would represent the anteroom for the change of regime”, which makes it a “existential question” to “the legacy of the 1979 Islamic Revolution”. According to him, Tehran have at his disposal “his great missilistic capacity” and could use it, for example, to force an interruption of oil traffic in the Ormuz Strait.

– It is highly unlikely to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program only with bombing to its known facilities. Nor will there be a collapse of the regime only based on air interdiction, without troops on the ground – evaluates Carmona. – Iran is the main military force of the Middle East, so Israel considers it its main antagonist.

There is still no information on the size of the damage, but the Iranian press confirmed that the infrastructures were actually attacked. Shortly after the attack, the Revolutionary Guard of the Islamic Republic, the most powerful arm of the country’s Armed Forces, said “now the war has begun to us.” In an offensive earlier this day, Israel said he killed three force commanders – who had been undergoing important cuddles in his high summit since the beginning of the conflict.

In the opinion of Paulo Filho, reserve colonel and master in military sciences, still “is too early to evaluate” the consequences of US entry into the war. According to him, two factors are fundamental to analyze the operation: the effective damage and what the reaction of the Iranians will be.

“An eventual destruction of Fordow must have left some seismographic record, it would be something to investigate,” he said, questioning what the next step in the Islamic Republic will be: – The revolutionary guard tweeted “now we enter the war.” What will they do: attack US troops in Syria and Iraq? Closing the Strait of Ormuz? Are they still able to react? And if they react, what will be the US response? Is there a chance of falling the regime?

In recent days, Washington has given several evidence that he would officially enter the war.

Earlier this Saturday, the US sent to its Pacific Guam Naval base, six B-2 stealing bombers-the only ones with the capacity to carry almost 14-ton Bunker Busters bombs designed to destroy underground bunkers such as the Fordow Nuclear Fortress. The maneuver was seen as a omen of an imminent attack, as the proximity of the base with the Middle East and its role as a regional logistics center make it a strategic starting point for operations in the region.

At the same time, the US had already sent about 30 supply aircraft to the region and displaced its largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, east of the Mediterranean Sea, near Israel, scheduled to arrive next week. With a capacity of about 4,600 military personnel and up to 90 aircraft, he will join two other American Superports that are already near: USS Nimitz, which was in Southeast Asia, and the USS Carl Vinson, previously operating in the Indian Ocean.

Another indication that Washington was information revealed earlier by AFP that Trump, who rarely spends weekends in Washington, would return to the White House on Saturday night to an unspecified “National Security Meeting”.

Two days ago, Trump warned that Tehran had “at most” two weeks to avoid possible US air strikes, while Washington evaluated whether to join the unprecedented bombing campaign of Israel. However, in a report from Reuters published on Saturday, two authorities heard on anonymity by the agency would have claimed that Israel was pressuring Trump to take the opportunity to attack now.

In a speech to the nation on Saturday night, the US president justified his action again by claiming that the attack would lead to the end of hostilities – a decision that may have domestic impacts on him, experts say.

-Join Israel’s attacks on Iran contrary to Trump’s campaign promises to leave USA out of new conflicts in the Middle East, ”says Santoro. He changed his mind in the face of successful Israeli bombings, which apparently weakened the Iranian air defense. Trump’s bet is that the US will make a quick, fast intervention against strategic targets, such as the key facilities of the nuclear program, and that it will have the benefits of victory without the wear of a long war.

So far, however, Iran has not given signs that it will download the guard so easily.