(Reuters) – Localiza’s actions (Rent3) and the moved (Movi3) They had expressive declines on Thursday, amid the possibility of a new federal government program for cheaper cars, which could affect the value of the companies’ fleet and the results of semi-new divisions.
According to a report of Valor Econômico, the government will announce next week the regulation of IPI Verde, new car tax system that will reward, with a smaller tax, cleaner vehicles and penalize the most pollutors.
And along with IPI Verde, according to the text of the newspaper, another program will be created, called Sustainable Car, which will reduce the cheapest cars IPI, provided they meet certain requirements and produce in the country.
Around 11:35 am, Localiza shares retreated 5.72%, at R $ 40.68, the worst Ibovespa performance, which gave in 0.87%, while the papers of the moved captains the Small Caps index losses with a 10.33%fall, to R $ 7.81.
UBS BB analysts see a negative potential impact on vehicle rental companies, such as locating and moved.
They mentioned that the IPI reductions that occurred in 2008 and 2012 – around 7 percentage points – had neutral effects on localized cash flow. On both occasions, the company recognized losses due to asset devaluation, which impacted its net income.
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In a reduction of 2023, the company also recognized a devaluation of 1.3% to 1.5% of the fleet’s accounting value, but this event also triggered a correction in used car prices with 1 to 3 years of use – which began to fall about 0.8% per month, compared to normal 0.3% to 0.5% per month, leading to a higher depreciation review.
“We believe that the market will be concerned with the possibility of a new change in the dynamics of the newly triggered by the new program, which could lead to another depreciation overhaul to localized and moved,” they said.
As pointed out by Itaú BBA, although it may be early to evaluate the impact of this possible profit discount program, the net effect can be negative for localizing and moved.
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The IPI rate for 1.0 cars is currently 7%, and there is no confirmation about the size of the reduction. If implemented, new cars prices may fall, potentially pressuring semi -new prices and triggering negative profit reviews to 2025 and 2026 due to higher short -term depreciation expenses.
On the other hand, the article suggests that, unlike the last discount program in 2023, companies will also be able to buy discount cars, which can lead to a smaller Capex for fleet renewal and a better depreciation cycle in the near future. “That said, we believe that short -term potential impact can overcome medium to long -term benefits,” he says.
Finally, BBA evaluates, it is important to note that this new program may face some opposition and difficulties to be implemented, although tax cuts are rarely denied. In addition, it seems that the prices of the used in no increase of about 4% in the year so far in new cars prices (FIPE data), which can mean a lower effect on the prices of the semi -new compared to the potential impact on new cars prices.
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(with Reuters)
