The increase in tensions in Middle East It may have a direct impact on the pocket of Brazilians. THE Parliament of Iran approved a proposal to close the Strait of Ormuzone of the main transportation routes of oil In the world, in response to US attacks against nuclear facilities in the country.
The decision still depends on the approval of the Iranian Security Council and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but the simple possibility already worries governments, markets and energy experts. By the narrow, it passes about 20% of all oil and natural gas moved in the worldin addition to products such as plastics, fertilizers, electronics and vehicles.
Direct impact on fuel price in Brazil
In the Brazilian market, the possible closure of Ormuz can cause immediate discharge in fuel pricesespecially in the regions North and Northeast. These areas depend largely on private refineries, which follow the variation in international oil prices.
Sérgio Araújo, Executive Chairman of Abicom (Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers)he explained to UOL that the situation is especially delicate because, unlike Petrobras, these private refineries do not hold prices. “Private refineries update prices weekly, as is common in the market. Only Petrobras adopts the practice of maintaining price lag,” he explains.
Currently, Petrobras has only one refinery in the Northeast, the Abreu e Lima Refineryin Pernambuco. Other units located in Amazonas and Bahia were sold in the Bolsonaro government, which increased dependence on the private market in these regions.
Oil can exceed US $ 100
The expectation in the market is that the price of the barrel, which currently revolves around US $ 80can exceed the brand of US $ 100 If the situation gets worse. This would press not only the price of fuel, but would also impact various sectors of the economy.
According to ABICOM survey, made before the conflict climbing, the Petrobras diesel price was already outdated at about $ 0.50while gasoline had a lag of R $ 0.20 in relation to the international market.
This difference was being sustained by Petrobras, but experts warn that, with a shot of the price of oil, The state -owned company may not be able to maintain this strategy for a long timewhich would lead to transfers to the consumer.
Read more:
High can have a ripple effect on the Brazilian and global economy
In addition to the direct impact on fuel pumps, the increase in the price of diesel can cause a high generalized in other sectors of the Brazilian economy.
This scenario can press inflation, as transportation costs directly impact food prices, industrialized products and goods in general, expanding the effects beyond fuel.
The concern with the Ormuz Strait is not limited to Brazil. International governments and institutions closely follow the developments. THE China has already spoken out charging stability in the region, and the European Union warned about the risks of a climbing in the conflict.
