In global markets, investors follow closely to the geopolitical scenario in the Middle East – which, despite favoring the dollar, also pressures the global risk market.
In addition, the monetary adjustment of the Brazilian Central Bank, with Selic by 15% after the Copom’s decision to raise the rate, imposes a higher opportunity cost and increases selectivity in the flow to local assets.
In the external context, reading is moderate to risk aversion, which, added to the rolling of options of options in B3, generated volatility in both exchange rate and future interest market.
For those who operate the mini-index, Friday (20) brought a consistent retreat in prices, Ibovespa Futuro registered close to 1.15%, closing around 137.115 thousand points, renewing minimums of the day and following the pressure of both interest rates and global uncertainties.
This combination reinforces that the correction bias prevailed, influenced by post-copom adjustment, derivative salaries and the challenging external scenario.
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The contracts of Mini-Index (Winq25)with expiration in August, ended the last session at low 1.37%to the 139,710 points.
15 -minute chart analysis
For the trading session of this Monday (23), the main graphic points to be observed are the supports in 139.470/139.260 (1), 138.715/138.295 (2) and 137.790/137.110 (3)while resistances are in 140.100/140.570 (1), 140.950/141.300 (2) and 142,000/142.340 (3).
In the 15 -minute chart, the asset lost the LTA of its high channel in the last session, although the closure occurred above the moving averages of 9 and 21 periods. Highlight for the formation of a descending, standard triangle that, if it breaks the support region in 139.470/139.260can intensify the low movement and lead the mini-index to seek next supports in 138.715/138.295 and 137.790/137.110.
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To the buying side, it will be necessary to flow from high to overcome the resistance range in 140.100/140.570. If this occurs, the asset may aim at the next resistances in 140.950/141.300 and, in a longer movement, 142,000/142.340.
By the daily chart, the mini-index maintains the tall trend in the short term, despite the closing of the last session below the averages of 9 and 21 periods and the high channel LTA test. Recent behavior, with lower tops, deserves attention and can signal possible reversal. In this context, the support regions in 137.390/136.800 and resistance in 143.030/143.710 They are key points.
To resume the main movement of discharge, the breakdown of resistance in 143.030/143.710 can make room for targets in 145.080/145.630 and 148.520/149.400.
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On the other hand, the loss of the support range in 137.390/136.800 can accelerate the seller flow, with targets in the previous funds in 134.550/133.560 and 131.950/130.885. THE IFR (14) In the diary is in 46.98still in a neutral zone.
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Winq25: 60 minutes chart
By the 60 -minute chart, the asset lost the high channel LTA and closed below moving averages of 9, 21 and 200 periods. For the trading session this Monday, special attention to the support regions in 139.470/138,715 points and resistance in 140.730/141.100 pointswhich may define the direction of the next movement of the asset.
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For the continuity of the low movement observed in the last session, it will be essential to break the support region in 139.470/138,715 points. If this track is lost, the mini-index can advance to the supports in 137.790/137.110 pointswith longer target projection in the region of 135.700/135.130 points.
On the other hand, for the asset to resume the movement of discharge, it will be necessary to overcome the resistance range in 140.730/141.100 points. If this level is broken, the mini-index can seek the regions of 142,000/142,230 pointswith longer targets designed in the region of 144,450 points.
(Rodrigo Paz is a technical analyst)
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