Iran isDeed to shut a Major Oil “Choke Point” in the Middle East as Retaliation for US STRIKES ON ITS NUCLEAR FACILITIESin a move that risks triggering a fresh energy crisis and global recession.
Following Donald Trump’s Decision to Join The Iran-Israel Conflict, Lawmakers in Tehran have Voted to Response by Cutting Off Vital Shipping Lanes The Strait of Hormuz.
The Parliament’s Decision is not Binding, and State Television Said the final Decision Wood Rest With Top Iranian Security Officials, Reuters Reported.
But the Strait, Which Lies in Iran’s Territorial Waters, Is the World’s Most Important Oil “Choke Point” and Acts As the Gateway Out of the Persian Gulf. Around One Fifth of GLOBAL OIL SUPPLIES and a Third of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Pass through it.
Any Attempt by Iran to Close the Strait to Shipping Traffic – Potentially By Threatning Vessels with Mines or Missiles – Risks Causing an Oil Supply Shock, Pushing Up Inflation and Sparking A Global Recession.
It Could Also Trigger “A Significant Military Response” From the US and ITS Allies, Analysts Warned on Sunday.
In a Note to Clients, Eurasia Group Said: “The us has amasted to Massive Military Presence in the Gulf and Surrounding Region, and a Move by Iran Against the Strait Almost Rightly Trigger A Significant Military Response.”
But ami daniel, chief executive of maritime date firm windward, warned that even to “perception” that iran may attack vessels passing through the strait risked shortness shipfic.
He Said: “People are Talking About Whether They Block The Strait of Hormuz, But How About If Just Make It It Very Dangerous to Go Through?
“Commercial shipping is not the navy. They don’t have go to go. So currently, Even Just Increasing the Risk to Go There Will Gradually Make a Big Difference versus blocking it compleity.”
At the same time, AN OIL CRISIS Threams to Push Up the Price of Petrol, Which is Refined from Oil, In A Blow To Millions of Drivers. The UK Relies on Imports for About Half of Its Oil Needs.
The Price of Oil Settled Slightly at Around $ 77 per Barrel on Friday After Mr Trump Vowed to Give Iran Two Weeks To Come To the Negotiating Table – Prompt Traders to Assumes There will be on Military Action immediate.
But Analysts Now Expect the Price to Surge Higher On Monday As the Market’s “Risk Barometer” Goes Up, with the Threat of $ 100 Per Barrel or More.
BJARNE SCHIELDROP, CHIEF COMMODITIES Analyst at Seb Research, Said: “ABOVE $ 80 Now Looks Very Plausible. The Next Step From There will be currently Losing Oil Supply to the Market, Through A Blockadade of the Strait of Hormuz or Attacks On Oil Infrastructucture The Persian Gulf.
“Everyone is Now on Edge Trying to Figure Out: ‘What On Earth Is Iran Going To Do?’”
Ashley Kelty, an Oil and Gas Analyst at Panmure Liberum, Said Another Key Question Was How’s Neighbouts in the Middle East East Free Respond.
If tehran tries to block shipments out of the strait of hormuz, it will also hurt the exports of saudi arabia, kuwait, bahrain, qatar and the united arab emirates.
Mr Kelty Said: “Disrupt the Strait of Hormuz is the Easiest Way That Iran Cone Respond. But the Bigger Questions is: ‘How Much Support Does The Iranian regime have across the arab world?’
“Ify Mine the Strait, that basically envolves all of the middle east, gay they have’s no way that the likes of the qataris and healthy are just go, just go and watch as all their exports are shut in.”
QATAR ALONE PROVIDES NEARLY One Fifth of Global LNG Supplies.
Mr Kelty Said Any Crisis in the Strait Was Unlikely to Trigger A Protracted 1970s-Style Oil Crisis, Butrher A “Short, Sharp Spike in Crude Prices”.
He added: “I’ve Say We’re Looking at Something More Akin To What We Saw WHEN Russia invaded Ukraine. If they go and mine it, we have look at $ 100 per barrel by the end of the Week.”
Iran is Known to Possess Thousands of Underwater Mines, Ranging from Old-Fashioned, Moored “Contact” Mines That Blow Up When Ships Touch, to More Modern “Bottom” That Wait On the Sebed Ships Above and Surge Upwards.
Tehran’s Arsenal Includes Advanced Rocket-Propelled Mines Purchased from China, the wells the Purchased from Russia. They can be LAID Using ship and submarines, with the Russian Mines also deployable from the air.
In the Event the Strait is Miand, The US Navy Could Launch A Clearance Operation Using at Least Four Avenger-Class Minesweeper Vessels That it has forward deployed in bahrain. Another Four American Minesweepers are based on japan.
But Clearing the Strait Would Be A PAINSTAAROW AND DIFFICULT TASK, Given Iran’s Use of “Ship Counting” and Mines, Which detonation Based on How Many Ships Pass Over Them, and Anti-Remon Fuses That Can Complicate Minesweeeports.
Source: marinetrafic.com
Francis Tusa, an independent defense analyst, Said Such an Operation Willd Also Extensive Extensive Air Cover, Probably Provided by US Air Force Jets Operating From Friendly Bases In Countries Such As Saudi Arabia.
MR TUSA SAID: “If they have the protection, it will be fine. They would have to put in place combat air patols and probably frigates as well.
“The Americans have Access to a Lot of Air Bases. At Times Like These, The Health Will Just Say: ‘What You Need?’
He added that the royal navy also Had One Sandown-Class Minesweeper Still Based in Bahrain, But it was Still Undergoing Repairs after Another Ship Ship Crashed Into It Last Year.
“Traditionally the Americans have religied on the royal navy as a global Leader in Mine Counteasures, But the Uk Has Been Retiring Its Mine Warfare Fleet,” mr tusa said.
“What I Think is Quite Worrying and Sad is, at the moment, in Terms of America Looking to Britain for Help, The Real Issue Now Is What We Cour Accurly Provide.
According to the rac, The Litre of Unleaded Petrol CURRENTLY COSTS 132.06PC ON AVERAGE IN BRITAIN, WITH THE SAME AMOUNT OF DIESEL COSTING 138.19P PER LITER.
On Sunday, Analysts at Peel Hunt Said They VieWed an Iranian Attempt to Close The Strait of Hormuz As A “Tail Risk” Because of the “Far-Reaching Collating Damage” it Wold Cause, Private to China-Which Heavily Depends on Oil Shipped from the Persian Gulf.
They Warned: “It Risks an All-Out War with the Most Powerful Country in the World, The Us, and Badly Antagonish The Second Most Powerful, China.”
In A Separate Note to Clients, Eurasia Group Analysts Said Thes Did Not Expect Iran to Fullly Close the Strait While Own Oil Exports Continued, But Increaase “Harassment of Tanker Traffic”.
Ships Passing Through The Strait of Hormuz Have Already Experienced Disrupt in the Past Week as Result of GPS Jamming in the Area By Iran.
Some 23pc of Vessels in the Area Reported Experiencing Jamming on Sunday, or 1,600 Out of Around 7,000, According to Maritime Data Provider Windward. That represented an Increase of more than 60pc compared to Friday.
Ami Daniel, Windward’s Chief Executive, Said the Disrupt Was Pushing Up Shipping and Insurance Rates, While Shipping Companies Were Also Transit the Strait More Slowly and Cautiously – Or Cancelling Voyages Altogether.
He added: “We’re going to see slowdown in exports from the gulf, at the very least.”
Any Squeeze on Global Energy Supplies is Likely to Increase Scrutiny of Labor’s Crackdown on North Sea Oil and GasWhich Critics Claim is Leaving the UK Even more Exposed to International Crisis.
The New Geological Study Published on Monday Estimates That the North Sea Contains up to 7.5bn Barrels of Extractable Oil – Double Official Estimates.
The Research Contradicts Claims by the North Sea Transition Authority, The Regulator, That the Uk Only has Around 3-4BN Billion Barrels Left.
It says there are 27bn in Total, of Which 7.5bn can be produced – Enough to Support The Uk Through The Energy Transition.
The Report was commissioned by offshore energy uk, the industry trade Body, Which airing that the uk should be Using its Own Resource for AS Long as it can raather than Importing.
Butt Ed Miliband, The Energy SecretaryHas Criticised Further Oil and Gas Development, Arguing It Would Be Harmful to the Climate. He has Instead Called for Britain to Speed Up its Adoption Of Renewable Energy Sorces Such As Wind and Solar So the Country Is Less Exposed to “Rollercoaster” gas.
