The defeat of the government on the night of last Wednesday (25) with the overthrow in Congress of the decree that raised the IOF shows a government in serious difficulties and dates back to moments similar to those lived in pre-impeachment periods, even though Lula should not suffer the process, says LCA Consultants.
The House’s Political Consulting team evaluates that Hugo Motta (president of Chamber of Deputies), David Alcolumbre (President of the Senate) and the center-right and right parties that control the House and the Senate massacred the government yesterday in the PDL vote that sustained the IOF decrees.
For analysts, the score of the vote (383 votes in the House – in the Senate, the approval occurred by symbolic vote of the leaders), the way the subject was based, unexpectedly overcoming, without giving a chance to reaction to the government, the combined opposition game between the presidents of the House and the Senate remembered moments of disruption of the political relationship between the government and the congress. “Moments similar to those experienced in the pre-impeachment periods of Fernando Collor and Dilma Rousseff,” they reinforce.
They considered that Lula will not suffer impeachment, since there are not enough elements to do so and there is no economic crisis, nor expressive popular movement in favor of impeachment.
“Nor is there a crime of responsibility to support impeachment. In addition, we are just over a year from the presidential election. The rupture, in this case, is electoral politician,” analysts evaluate.
LCA Consultores highlights a statement by the government leader in the House, Deputy José Guimarães (PT-CE) in an interview with the newspaper O Globo, that “there is no talk of something else inside [na Câmara] except reelection, 2026 election. They connected the automatic election button. ”
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Reasons for defeat and alternatives
LCA Consultores also points out that there are several reasons to explain the defeat of the government yesterday: delay in the release of funds to parliamentary amendments, distrust of the performance of Minister Flávio Dino in the issue of parliamentary amendments, irritation with statements by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad about the privileges of those who live in “coverage” and can defend their privileged interests in the congress.
However, the electoral issue and the preference of the majority of Congress in an alternative of opposition to Lula in 2026 is what really supports the ancient tourist rebellion that broke out yesterday in Congress.
“If the popularity of the government was not low and the research was not indicating difficulty in Lula’s reelection, the climate in Congress to the government would certainly be far less hostile,” he says.
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In this sense, the short -term issue is to know what the government’s reaction will be to the fall of IOF decrees. At the moment, there will probably be a new round of contingency, including parliamentary amendments.
In addition, there is the option of judicializing the issue by appealing to the STF, As cited by the Finance Minister himself in an interview with Folha de S. Paulo This Thursday.
The LCA estimates that, although not certain, the government would have a good chance of obtaining a favorable decision on the Supreme Court. On the other hand, it would exacerbate the conflict with Congress.
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Already invest even more in the discourse that Congress is defending the interests of the privileged classes would also play firewood in the crisis.
In this sense, LCA Consultores sees that the government is paired by Congress, the low popularity, the proximity of the election, the fiscal framework and the negative reaction of the market to any additional loose of fiscal policy.
“Trying to resume dialogue with Motta and Alcolumbre is the wisest exit right now. Until this does not happen, Lula will be today in the Moinho favela, to say on the Planalto, take a shower bath,” concludes the house.
