The economic agenda this Thursday (26) focuses on inflation and activity data, both in Brazil and in the United States. Earlier this day, the Central Bank releases the monetary policy report, with a detailed assessment of the country’s economic and financial conditions, shortly after the decision to maintain the basic interest rate (Selic) at 15% at the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM).
At 9am, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) publishes the IPCA-15 (National Consumer Price Index 15), a preview of official inflation, which can influence market expectations about the next steps of monetary policy.
In addition, the IRS discloses the May collection data and the accumulated 2025. The presentation will be made at 11am, in the auditorium of the Ministry of Finance, by Tax Auditors Claudemir Malaquias and Marcelo Gomide, with live broadcast on YouTube.
In the Political Seara, investors must reverberate the significant defeat of the Lula administration with the overthrown the measures that raised the IOF. The PDL passed in the House, with a score of 383 votes against only 98, and in the Senate.
In the United States, investors follow, at 9:30 am (Brasília time), the final reading of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the first quarter, which offers a consolidated view of the performance of the largest economy in the world at the beginning of the year. At the same time, the Labor Department releases weekly unemployment assistance requests, an indicator that helps measure the dynamics of the US labor market.
Three federal reserve leaders (Fed, the Central Bank of the United States) today speak amid projections about the next steps of American monetary policy. At 9am, Tom Barkin, member of the Federal Market Federal Committee (FOMC), participates in an event. Already at 2:15 pm, it will be the turn of Michael Barr, vice president of Fed Supervision, followed by Neel Kashkari, also from Fomc, who speaks at 20h.
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Agenda
At 9:30 am, President Lula meets at the Planalto Palace with the Minister of the Civil House, Rui Costa, and also the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad; the Minister of Agriculture and Livestock, Carlos Fávaro; the Minister of Agrarian Development and Family Farming, Paulo Teixeira; the executive secretary of the Ministry of Finance, Dario Durigan; the Deputy Executive Secretary of the Ministry of Planning and Budget, Márcio Luiz de Albuquerque Oliveira; and Gilson Alceu Bittencourt, Undersecretary of Agricultural Policy and Agro -Environmental Business. At 2:10 pm, Lula visits the Moinho favela and, at 3:20 pm, participates in the signing of acts related to the housing solution to the local community.
Central Bank President Gabriel Galipolo participates at 11am in a press conference on monetary policy at the Central Bank headquarters in Brasilia, broadcast on the BC channel on YouTube. Later, at 15h, he attend the meeting of the National Monetary Council (CMN). (closed to the press)
Brazil
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8am – Industry Confidence (June)
8am -Monetary Policy Report
9h-IPCA-15 (June)
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11am – Federal Collection (May)
2:30 pm – Central Government
USA
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9h – Barkin’s speech, member of FOMC
9h30 durable goods (May)
9:30 – GDP (final) 1st tri
9:30 am-Employment allowance (weekly)
9:30 am – Grain Export (weekly)
11am – Pendant Homes (May)
2:15 pm-Barr Speech, Vice President of Fed Supervision
20h – Speech by Kashkari, member of FOMC
INTERNATIONAL
Powell Substitute
United States President Donald Trump considers it to announce in the second half the name he intends to appoint to chair the Federal Reserve (Fed), even with the current term of Jerome Powell valid until May 2026. The information is from the Wall Street Journal newspaper. The measure, considered atypical, is seen as an attempt to undermine Powell’s authority and influence monetary policy decisions before the official command exchange.
Maybe start soon
During a press conference after the NATO summit in The Hague, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the conflict between Israel and Iran may start soon. According to him, both countries are “tired, exhausted”, but there is a possibility of resumption of hostilities. “I think one day, yes. Maybe it starts soon,” he said. The clash between the two ended on Tuesday (24), after a US-mediated ceasefire. However, shortly after the agreement, both sides exchanged accusations of violation. Trump compared the conflict to a fight between “two children in the school courtyard.”
Next week
Trump said Washington could resume negotiations with Iran next week, with the possibility of a new nuclear agreement. During the NATO summit in The Hague, he said that an Iranian statement against obtaining nuclear weapons could suffice. Trump compared American bombing to Iranian nuclear facilities to the atomic attacks of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, suggesting that the offensive ended the conflict with Israel. Although an intelligence report indicates limited delay in the Iranian nuclear program, the president contested the data and cited severe damage. He also praised Israel’s containment after the truce and said the US will decide its next steps if Iran resumes enrichment.
ECONOMY
Liberation
The CJF (Federal Council of Justice) released R $ 2.07 billion to pay RPVs (Small Value Requests) of Retirees and Penciesrs of the INSS, authorized in May. The amounts will be paid to more than 131,000 beneficiaries who have won shares of up to 60 minimum wages. The total also includes funds for other food debts, such as server salaries. Payment will be made via Caixa or Banco do Brasil, after processing by TRFs. To consult the value, you must access the region’s TRF website with CPF or process number. The consultation must be made in the “Procedural Consultation” section.
CLT
The House of Representatives approved on Wednesday (25) the creation of the payroll loan for workers with a formal contract. The text, which still needs to be voted in the Senate until July 9, authorizes the discount on leaf without the need for an agreement between company and bank. It also allows app drivers and delivery to use their transfers as a basis for the discount. The project transfers from the National Social Security Council to the CMN (National Monetary Council) the definition of the INSS insured interest ceiling. The operationalization of the warranty via FGTS should start only at the end of July.
Increase
The federal government approved on Wednesday (25) the increase in the mixture of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30%, as it is valid on August 1. Biodiesel mixture was also authorized in diesel from 14% to 15%. The decision of CNPE (National Energy Policy Council) occurs amid international pressure on oil prices. According to Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, the change can generate economy for drivers and consolidate Brazil as a fuel exporter. Lula stated that biofuels do not compromise food production and reinforced the strategic importance of the sector.
Double intervention
The Central Bank held on Wednesday (25) a double intervention in the exchange rate, with auction in cash and reverse exchange swap, both worth $ 1 billion. In the cash auction, it sold dollars taken from international reserves; At swap, he bought dollars in the future market. Operations, done simultaneously, tend to maintain the exchange rate stable. Experts say this action reduces the cost of currency coupon, ie interest in dollars paid by the BC. In addition, selling in the cash market helps to reduce excess liquidity in the banking system. The dollar opened close to stability, quoted at R $ 5.5191.
POLICY
IOF FLUBADA
In a defeat to the Lula administration, the House and Senate overthrew three decrees on Wednesday that changed IOF (Financial Operations Tax) aliquots. The vote was symbolic in the Senate and expressive in the House, with 383 favorable votes. It was the first time since 1992 that a presidential decree was annulled by Congress. The decision surprised Planalto, which was not warned in advance. Government leaders criticized the measure.
Minister Gleisi Hoffmann (SRI) stated that the overthrow of the IOF decree by Congress has no legal basis and could force the government to cut another $ 10 billion from the 2025 budget, including $ 2.7 billion in parliamentary amendments. The decision would also affect social programs and compromise the fiscal target, she said. Petistas evaluate the STF, but part of the government fears crisis with the legislature.
PT leader in the House, Lindbergh Farias (RJ), criticized the decision of the president of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicans-PB), to guide the vote of the project that overthrow the new IOF decree by surprise. He called the action “child provocation” and “serious error”, pointing to attempt to weaken the Lula government and anticipate the 2026 electoral debate.
Income tax
The House of Representatives approved on Wednesday (25) the bill that updates the income tax table, exempting from the collection who earns up to two minimum wages per month (R $ 3,036, with simplified discount). The measure, effective from May, benefits low -income workers and now goes to the Senate. The exemption range rose to up to R $ 2,428.80, while the second range, with a rate of 7.5%, goes up to R $ 2,826.65. The IRS estimates fiscal waiver of R $ 3.29 billion in 2025.
Pre-Salt Social Fund
The House also approved on Wednesday (25) the provisional measure that expands the use of the pre-salt social background, allowing the creation of a new track of Minha Casa, Minha Vida and a line of credit for housing reforms. The proposal, which goes to the Senate, also includes rules to allocate part of health and education resources, and establishes regional application criteria. The measure also incorporates a proposal that authorizes the sale of surplus oil from the Union, with potential collection of up to R $ 20 billion in 2025.
More deputies
The senators approved on Wednesday (25) the increase in the number of federal deputies, that is, after the elections of 2026, the House of Representatives will have 531 representatives, 18 more than the current 513.
Big Techs
Minister Edson Fachin of the Supreme Court (STF), accompanied the divergence of Minister André Mendonça and voted for the constitutionality of the current rules of the Internet Civil Mark, which hold the platforms only after court order to remove content. Minister Cármen Lúcia, along with seven other ministers, formed a majority to expand Big Techs obligations regarding content published by third parties. The trial, resumed on Wednesday (25), awaits the vote of Minister Kassio Nunes Marques and should also define the modulation of the thesis. Fachin defends caution to preserve freedom of expression and believes that regulation must be structural, not via judiciary, while most understand it is necessary greater responsibility of platforms to protect fundamental rights.
Suspicion of obstruction
STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes ordered lawyers Fabio Wajngarten and Paulo Bueno to be heard by the Federal Police on suspicion of obstruction of investigation linked to the criminal organization. Reports indicate that lawyers reportedly sought relatives of Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid for information about their award-winning collaboration. Moraes also requested an expert report from Cid’s smaller daughter, delivering to the investigation. Cid’s defense pointed to insistent contact attempts made by other lawyers involved in the case. Wajngarten and Bueno have not spoken so far.
(With Reuters, Agência Brasil and Estadão)
